Horizon Kinetics' Trades in Q4 2024

Who are Murray Stahl, Peter Doyle, and Horizon Kinetics?

Horizon Kinetics is an independent investment firm founded in 1994 by Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl. The firm pursues a research-driven, long-term contrarian value investing strategy with particular emphasis on owner-operator businesses. Stahl and Doyle's approach centers on identifying overlooked or misunderstood companies with enduring competitive advantages and management teams with significant skin in the game, often holding positions for many years as their investment theses develop.

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Changes in Q4 2024

New positions: Horizon Kinetics initiated significant positions in Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) with shares valued at $23.2M, Aris Water Solutions (ARIS) worth $5.5M, Marex Group (MRX) at $4.4M, and several smaller positions including Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), iPath VIX ETN (VXX), Ladder Capital (LADR), AT&T (T), and American Express (AXP).

Bought: The firm dramatically increased its stake in DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) by 869%, adding over 4 million shares for a 673% return, while also significantly adding to positions in San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) (+522,288 shares), Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust (BCHG) (+469,894 shares), Viper Energy (VNOM) (+268,959 shares), and Osisko Gold Royalties (OR) (+267,777 shares).

Sold: Horizon Kinetics completely liquidated 13 positions including CVS Health (CVS), Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ), and ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ), while significantly reducing holdings in Nutrien (NTR) by 79%, BlackRock MuniHoldings Fund (MHD) by 88%, and Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) by 17%.

New Positions in Q4 2024

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. HE

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 2,379,498 shares of Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. in Q4 2024. Hawaiian Electric Industries has shown improved core financial performance over the last year, with Q1 2025 core income rising to $40 million (+42.9% YoY), though its stock remains range-bound near key moving averages. Strategic moves like reducing debt by $384 million and resolving wildfire litigation have strengthened its balance sheet, while analysts project 70.4% annual EPS growth despite modest revenue expectations. The stock has traded in a narrow $8.91-$10.85 channel in 2025 with heightened volatility linked to wildfire settlement execution risks.

• Core income from continuing operations grew 42.9% YoY to $40 million in Q1 2025.
• Analysts forecast 70.1% annual earnings growth despite only 4% revenue growth expectations.
• Stock shows 57% green days over last month with 4.09% price volatility, trading 2.47% above near-term forecast.

Aris Water Solutions, Inc. ARIS

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 229,308 shares of Aris Water Solutions, Inc. in Q4 2024. Aris Water Solutions has demonstrated strong financial and operational performance over the past year, with 11.05% revenue growth in 2024 and a 49.33% stock price increase over the last 52 weeks. The company strengthened its position through strategic initiatives like a 33% dividend increase and Moody’s credit rating upgrade to B1 in Q1 2025. Recent Q1 2025 results showed 17% YoY revenue growth and continued volume expansion in core water handling and recycling segments.

• Q1 2025 net income grew 21% YoY to $8.61 million with EPS increasing to $0.27.
• Produced water handling volumes grew 3% YoY in Q1 2025, reaching record levels.
• Adjusted EBITDA increased 6% YoY to $56.5 million in Q1 2025, exceeding guidance.

Marex Group MRX

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 141,374 shares of Marex Group in Q4 2024. Marex Group has demonstrated strong financial performance over the past 12 months, with 40% year-over-year growth in Adjusted Profit Before Tax to $321.1 million in 2024. The company is gaining market share through strategic acquisitions and organic expansion, supported by robust client activity across its global commodities and financial markets platform. Recent preliminary Q1 2025 results show continued momentum with expected revenue growth of 23-27% year-over-year, positioning the company for sustained value creation.

• Adjusted Profit Before Tax surged 40% YoY to $321.1 million in 2024.
• Q1 2025 revenue guidance of $449.3-$464.3 million represents 23-27% YoY growth.
• Analysts expect Q1 2025 EPS of $0.91 on $463 million revenue, reflecting continued confidence.

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. ARLP

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 54,761 shares of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. in Q4 2024. Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) faced significant headwinds over the past year, with Q1 2025 revenue declining 17.1% year-over-year to $540.5 million and net income dropping 53% to $74 million. Despite these challenges, the stock gained 3.31% post-earnings, supported by strong coal market fundamentals and 96% committed pricing for 2025 production volumes. Fitch Ratings recently affirmed its 'BB' IDR with a stable outlook, citing ARLP's strategic positioning in growing domestic utility demand.

• Q1 2025 EPS of $0.57 missed estimates by 6.6%.
• Secured 17.7 million tons of coal commitments through 2028.
• Maintains $81.3 million cash reserve with 3.17/5 financial health score.

iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN VXX

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 9,900 shares of iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN in Q4 2024. iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) delivered mixed performance over the last 12 months, with a 8.15% 1-year return slightly below its category average of 8.58%. While showing strong 21.61% 3-month returns, recent technical indicators suggest growing volatility risks. The ETN remains highly sensitive to market volatility patterns, underperforming its 5-year benchmark by 25.28%.

• 21.61% 3-month return outperforms category average by 9.86 percentage points.
• 313.43% 5-day volatility indicates extreme short-term price swings.
• Technical indicators turned bearish in April 2025 with Momentum and MACD crossing below zero.

Horizon Kinetics HKHC

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 16,168 shares of Horizon Kinetics in Q4 2024. Horizon Kinetics has demonstrated strong growth over the past 12 months, with assets under management (AUM) surging 54% YoY to $10.8 billion as of March 2025. This performance was driven by 58% YoY growth in management fee revenue to $18.9 million in Q1 2025 and substantial investment gains from market appreciation. While the firm benefits from increased client inflows and legal clarity around key holdings, exposure to volatile digital assets and concentrated portfolios presents ongoing risks.

• AUM grew 54% YoY to $10.8 billion as of March 2025, with 10% quarterly growth from market appreciation and new accounts.
• Q1 2025 management fees increased 58% to $18.9 million, while net income reached $22.8 million ($1.23 per share).
• 2024 full-year revenue rose 18% to $57.2 million despite $6.0 million unrealized losses from digital asset holdings.

BlackRock MuniVest Fund II, Inc. MVT

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 47,926 shares of BlackRock MuniVest Fund II, Inc. in Q4 2024. BlackRock MuniVest Fund II (MVT) delivered mixed performance over the last 12 months, with a 1.26% NAV total return but a stronger 3.62% market price total return, reflecting shifting investor sentiment in municipal bonds. The fund maintained a 13.91% annualized distribution rate despite reducing its quarterly payout from $0.07 to $0.054 in 2025, prioritizing capital gains over return-of-capital strategies. Its focus on AAA-rated bonds and short duration portfolio (<5 years) helped mitigate interest rate volatility while trading at a -9.54% discount to NAV as of May 2025.

• Market price outperformed NAV by 236 basis points over the last year (3.62% vs 1.26% total returns).
• Distribution yield fell to 6.5% annualized (from 8.4% in early 2025) but remains 100% funded by long-term capital gains.
• Trades at a -9.54% discount to NAV despite 10-year annualized returns of 3.2% through market cycles.

BlackRock Investment Quality Municipal Trust Inc. BKN

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 42,157 shares of BlackRock Investment Quality Municipal Trust Inc. in Q4 2024. BlackRock Investment Quality Municipal Trust Inc. (BKN) has shown mixed performance over the last 12 months, with a 0.38% NAV total return year-to-date but a -0.56% market price total return. The fund trades at an 8.67% discount to NAV while maintaining a 5.04% dividend yield, reflecting both income appeal and market skepticism toward municipal bond funds. Recent improvements in P/E ratios from -124x in 2023 to 28x in 2024 signal financial stabilization.

• 3.25% expense ratio remains elevated compared to peer municipal bond funds.
• $0.057 per share monthly distribution announced in May 2025 maintains tax-exempt income focus.
• -10.77% price decline over 6 months contrasts with modest NAV gains, highlighting market volatility.

Ladder Capital Corp LADR

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 41,000 shares of Ladder Capital Corp in Q4 2024. Ladder Capital Corp has demonstrated resilient performance over the past 12 months, balancing conservative capital allocation with shareholder returns. The company reported $25.5 million in Q1 2025 distributable earnings ($0.20 per share) and declared a $0.23 per share dividend, supported by its $4.8 billion asset base and liquidity. A recent $100 million stock buyback authorization reinforces its commitment to enhancing value amid commercial real estate market shifts.

• Q1 2025 distributable EPS of $0.20, with dividends historically covered by earnings (2024 full-year distributable EPS: $1.21).
• Announced 50% increase to stock repurchase program in April 2025, totaling $100 million.
• Maintains 6.5% dividend yield, underpinned by disciplined risk management and industry-leading credit metrics.

Direxion Junior Gold Miners ETF JDST

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 6,100 shares of Direxion Shares ETF Trust in Q4 2024. Direxion Shares ETF Trust's DAILY JR GOLD MI (JDST) has experienced significant challenges over the last 12 months, declining 71.75% in value due to adverse conditions in the junior gold mining sector. As a leveraged inverse ETF targeting junior gold miners, its performance has been pressured by rising gold prices and improved sentiment toward mining equities. The fund's -2x daily leverage amplifies losses when the underlying index rises, creating compounding risks in bullish precious metals environments.

• 1-year return of -71.75% trails the broader commodities sector significantly.
• High expense ratio of 0.98% erodes returns in volatile markets.
• 11.42% dividend yield reflects capital return distributions rather than operational income.

NuScale Power Corporation SMR

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 13,550 shares of NuScale Power Corporation in Q4 2024. NuScale Power Corporation has demonstrated 256.21% stock price growth over the last 12 months, driven by accelerating commercialization of its SMR technology and strategic partnerships. The company reported a 971% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025 ($13.4M vs. $1.38M) while narrowing operating losses by 20%. Recent progress with regulatory approvals and AI/data center partnerships positions it as a leader in the emerging 24/7 clean energy market.

• 21.64% single-day stock surge on May 13, 2025 after Q1 earnings revealed 214% revenue beat versus estimates.
• $521.4 million cash position at Q1-end provides runway for NRC design approval (mid-2025 target) and module production.
• Forward momentum with 4.5 million shares sold in recent offering and 12 power modules already in material production phase.

AT&T Inc. T

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 10,400 shares of AT&T Inc. in Q4 2024. AT&T Inc. has shown notable growth over the past year, with its stock price reaching a 52-week high of $29.03 in April 2025 and currently trading at $27.84 as of May 2025, reflecting a 5.18% gain over the last 30 days. The company benefits from strategic investments in 5G networks and fiber optic technology, coupled with debt reduction efforts and HBO Max subscriber growth. However, competitive pressures from T-Mobile and Verizon persist, alongside risks from accelerating cord-cutting trends.

• Stock price up 5.18% over the last 30 days and 28% over the past six months.
• Annualized dividend yield of 4.0% ($1.11 per share), supported by consistent quarterly payments of $0.2775.
• Trading 4.3% below 52-week high of $29.03, with analysts projecting mid-2025 targets up to $32.75.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 2,203 shares of Chesapeake Energy Corporation in Q4 2024. Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) delivered modest performance over the past 12 months with a 0.72% total return, though it has shown stronger momentum in 2025 with a 16.45% YTD stock price increase. The company strengthened its financial position by increasing its credit facility to $2.5 billion and generating $508 million in adjusted EBITDAX in Q1 2024. Its pending merger with Southwestern Energy and focus on capital discipline position it for potential long-term value creation.

• Stock price surged 16.45% year-to-date as of May 2025, outperforming its 12-month trajectory.
• Analysts project a 10.50% average upside to current prices with targets up to $154.
• Paid $0.715 per share dividend in June 2024 while maintaining capital discipline.

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. CQP

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 4,000 shares of Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. in Q4 2024. Cheniere Energy Partners has shown mixed performance over the last 12 months, with revenue declining 9.93% to $8.70 billion and earnings dropping 38.73% to $2.06 billion in 2024. Despite this, the stock has risen 23.2% over the past year to $63.94, trading at a 13% premium to Morningstar’s fair value estimate of $58.00, supported by its 5.08% dividend yield and stable LNG demand under long-term contracts. Recent Q1 2025 results showed $3.0 billion in revenue and a $99 million increase in Adjusted EBITDA, reinforcing operational resilience despite earnings volatility.

• Stock price outperformed SPY by 23.2% over the last year while maintaining a low beta of 0.67.
• Analysts project a 6% downside to the 12-month price target of $53.60, citing a Strong Sell rating.
• Q1 2025 revenue declined $277 million YoY due to unfavorable derivatives valuation, partially offset by higher LNG margins.

American Express Company AXP

Peter Doyle and Murray Stahl bought 700 shares of American Express Company in Q4 2024. American Express Company has demonstrated strong financial performance over the past 12 months, with revenue growth of 9% (10% FX-adjusted) in FY 2024 and EPS surging 25% to $14.01. Despite a 30% stock price correction in early 2025, the company maintains a bullish outlook with 2025 EPS guidance of $15.00-$15.50 and institutional investors increasing their positions. Recent dividend hikes and sustained growth in billed business underscore its resilience in payments markets.

• EPS grew 25% YoY to $14.01 in FY 2024, with Q1 2025 EPS up 9% to $3.64.
• Revenue increased 9.3% to $60.76B in 2024, driven by 8% growth in billed business to $1.55T.
• Forward P/E ratio of 19.29 with 17% dividend hike announced and 20% upside projected by analysts.

Holdings on December 31, 2024